ULI Philadelphia’s 2025 Fall Forecast brought regional leaders together for a candid discussion of the economic forces shaping Philadelphia’s future and the evolving investment landscape across asset classes. The event opened with a Fireside Chat between Patrick Harker, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Jodie Harris, President of Philadelphia Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC). This was followed by a “Views from the Top” panel moderated by Elizabeth Bell, Co-Head of Real Estate of Hamilton Lane, featuring E. Todd Briddell, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of CenterSquare Investment Management, Jason Morgan Co-President of Morgan Properties, and Stephen Spaeder, President & Chief Executive Officer of Equus Capital Partners. 

Fireside Chat: Economic Uncertainty and Regional Competitiveness 

Harker characterized the current moment as one of “uncertainty” in multiple dimensions, from tariff-driven cost pressures whose severity is yet to be determined to an unusually wide divergence among Federal Open Market Committee members’ outlooks on rates. He noted that while inflation has moderated, structural forces such as demographic aging and sustained deficit spending will keep long-term interest rates elevated. He expects the Federal Funds rate to settle around 3%, with little room for the Fed to engineer lower long-term yields given these constraints. 

Harris highlighted how PIDC is navigating this climate by leaning on its flexibility as a loan fund and doubling down on workforce development. She emphasized that Philadelphia is no longer the poorest large city in America and is strengthening its economic nodes, such as the Bellwether District, yet must focus on regional cooperation to avoid fragmentation of efforts among city and suburban jurisdictions. 

Higher education and healthcare remain central to the region’s economy; Harker noted that Philadelphia’s dependence on “eds and meds” measures 40% above the national average. However, looming demographic shifts, declining international enrollment, and cuts to Medicaid and research funding pose risks to this anchor ecosystem. In the face of a weak life sciences market, Harris pointed to emerging opportunities in advanced manufacturing, shipbuilding, and biomedical technology, as well as the potential to repurpose vacant office space into startup incubators, as potential paths forward. 

Both speakers addressed AI’s long-term role. Harris framed it as a promising but not yet polished practical tool, while Harker compared the pace of adoption to the multi-decade rollout of personal computers. While optimistic about productivity gains, he cautioned that AI-driven productivity growth alone won’t enable us to grow our way out of the national debt. He closed with a call for predictable and pragmatic governance at both the state and federal levels to reduce uncertainty. 

Views from the Top: Capital Flows and Market Positioning 

The CEO panel explored how investors are reacting to elevated rates and shifting institutional demand for different asset classes. Morgan noted strong institutional demand for core-plus multifamily and outlined Morgan Properties’ focus on workforce housing, where wider cap-rate spreads offer better relative value. Spaeder, less focused on cap compression, suggested a focus on long-term rent growth, citing demographic trends that delay homeownership and a slowdown in new deliveries. 

Briddell underscored that the Fed’s post-COVID low-rate regime created unrealistic expectations, and that the market is now in a normalization phase. With operating costs rising and heavily-supplied segments like Class A multifamily and large-box industrial facing a “hangover,” CenterSquare is leaning into neighborhood retail and small-tenant industrial. All panelists noted massive amounts of capital chasing data centers and power infrastructure — often siphoning capital away from traditional real estate and blurring the lines between infrastructure projects and real estate as historically defined.  With regard to recent consolidation among public REITs, panelists noted that public REITs have avoided the trap of overleveraging but disagreed about whether acquiring public REITs is attractive given the structures’ limitations in asset classes and potential cap rate compression. 

When asked about investing in Philadelphia, the panel struck a cautious tone, noting several headwinds as well as potential avenues to improve conditions. Potential means of improving the investment climate included reconsidering local policy regarding tax and development. 

Looking Ahead 

Across both conversations, a shared message emerged: while uncertainty may characterize 2025, Philadelphia has substantial assets, such as its talent base, anchor institutions, and growing innovation sectors, that position it for success in the next few years. ULI Philadelphia will continue convening leaders to advance that dialogue in the months ahead. 

ULI Philadelphia would like to thank all of the panelists for their time and dedication to the city and our event sponsors, whose support made this program possible. 

Contributed by Alexander Abramson. Alexander is a senior associate with the Arden Group and a member of the ULI Philadelphia Young Leaders Group.